Jacob Nielsen om den långa svansen av sidvisningar

Postat: 2006-08-15 kl. 19.44

It's now clear that we have a drooping tail: the site simply doesn't have enough content to supply the predicted demand at the low end.

[...]

So, what would happen if our sample site could wag its traffic tail up to the straight line representing the traffic potential the theory predicts?
In my analysis, current traffic with 1,000 pages was 2.6 M pageviews over an 8-week period. With 260,000 pages, the site could expect traffic to increase to 4.8 M pageviews over the same period. [...]

Now, if we extend the 8-week period to a full year, the total traffic would almost double -- from 16.9 M to 32.2 M pageviews -- giving each new page an average of 58 views.

[...] In the long term, non-search advertising's value will drop to 0.1 cents or less per page.

So, at the expected long-term value of 0.1 cents per view, 58 pageviews have a value of about 6 cents. If we assume the new pages can attract traffic for five years, and then discount future cash flow by 10% per year, the present value of each new page is 24 cents.

Not much. But we're expecting to add 259,000 pages, so the total value would be $62,000.

[C]ould the site create 259,000 new pages for $62K? Obviously not[.] The only feasible approach is that chosen by many sites these days: to con users into contributing content for free.

Jacob Nielsen's Alertbox Data Visualization of Web Stats: Logarithmic Charts and the Drooping Tail (2006-08-14)

Delen av mig som inte gillar Jacob Nielsen tycker det låter som han pratar om spam, men ändå.